On a crisp afternoon in Tokyo, a crowd of some hundred people gather around a gated circle a few meters wide, the throng so thick that it occludes the object of their scrutiny.
¡°Someone¡¯s talking!¡±
Boom operators lean in.
¡°He¡¯s here, he¡¯s here!¡±
Phones rise to ready position and necks crane to see over the crowd.
At the center of this rapt attention is not a young idol or a scandal-hit politician, but a nervous-looking meteorologist. In this moment, Yoshiro Kobayashi, from the nation¡¯s weather agency, is tasked with a massive responsibility. He grasps for his words, pauses and asks if he can start over. Then, with practiced force: ¡°I declare the cherry blossoms open!¡±
¡°They¡¯ve opened! Congratulations!¡± a voice from somewhere in the crowd rings out to a round of applause.
It¡¯s hard to overstate how important the cherry blossom season is to Japan, not only culturally but economically. Depictions in painting and poetry of hanami, the activity of partying and picnicking while surrounded by the blossoms, go back to the Heian Period (794 to 1185).
At the heart of the whole operation, estimated to be worth ?615.8 billion ($4.6 billion) this year, is a small number of scientists responsible for tracking the gently shifting target of this national pastime. And as the world gets warmer, their jobs are getting harder.
Big Forecast
Forecasting in Japan is a robust business.
In winter, the website Tenki.jp puts out a Nabemono Index to measure whether it¡¯s a cozy day for hot pot. The forecast goes right down to individual cities across the country and even wards in Tokyo. (Right now in my neighborhood it¡¯s ¡°40 nabe,¡± out of 100.) In warmer months, the site publishes indices for beer and ice cream. Throughout the year, most weather companies publish daily forecasts for laundry, which predicts how quickly clothes will air dry (Today: 4 out of 5 towels), as well as the strength of pollen levels and the likelihood of needing an umbrella.
But the uncontested king of Big Forecast is sakura projections.
Starting in January, companies begin issuing forecasts for when cherry blossoms will first bloom and then peak. The models vary from company to company, which is why, just like the weather forecast, the blossom predictions depend on who you ask.
Reporters and camera crews gather at Yasukuni Shrine in Tokyo¡¯s Chiyoda Ward on March 14 to await the possible announcement of the start of the cherry blossom season by the Japan...
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