Four years after Russia¡¯s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Western observers still do not understand the Kremlin¡¯s strategy.

Some think there is none and that Russia¡¯s behavior is completely irrational and thus unpredictable. Others argue the opposite: Russia is enacting a carefully constructed, long-term revanchist vision, in which claiming Ukrainian territory is just the first step. Both explanations are wrong.

Russia has not undertaken its brutal war against Ukraine and upended Europe¡¯s security architecture on a whim and Russian President Vladimir Putin¡¯s portrayal of the war as a clash of civilizations ¡ª an existential struggle against a West bent on destroying Russia ¡ª is not mere theater. But nor is such rhetoric evidence of a fully formed imperial ideology, let alone a comprehensive blueprint for global transformation.