Prediction markets are being touted on social media as a lucrative side hustle for young Americans squeezed by rent and student loan bills. In reality, most traders are losing money, and a significant amount in many cases.
Over 100,000 accounts lost at least $1,000 on Polymarket, one of the largest prediction markets, according to an analysis of every wallet active since the beginning of 2025. That is almost twice the number that made at least that much.
Among the winners, a majority of the profits were raked in by a tiny slice of what look to be automated bots, based on the Polymarket trade records compiled by the data firm Dune. Everyone else, in aggregate, lost $131 million.
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