The Trump administration¡¯s new National Defense Strategy (NDS) places ¡°deterrence¡± at the center of America¡¯s grand strategy. Deter China from dominating the Indo-Pacific. Deter threats to American access to Asian markets. (Taiwan, strangely, goes unmentioned.)

The document bears the traces of dual authorship: the cool strategic realism of Elbridge Colby (grandson of former CIA director William Colby) on China and the fevered nativism of Trump¡¯s White House deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller on migration. It rebrands alliance-shedding as ¡°burden-sharing.¡± And by demanding that China stay out of the Western Hemisphere while insisting on total U.S. access to the Indo-Pacific, it explodes the very concept of spheres of influence.

But the document¡¯s central concept, deterrence, has a specific meaning, developed through decades of strategic theory. And the authors of the NDS seem to have lost the thread.