It finally happened: Ekrem Imamoglu, Istanbul¡¯s mayor and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan¡¯s most formidable likely challenger in the 2028 presidential election, was formally arrested on flimsy corruption charges, after four days in custody.

The move was a long time coming and it cannot be dismissed as mere political maneuvering. It might not seem like it, but this is how coups often happen nowadays: with no blood and no noise beyond the whimper of a democracy dying in handcuffs.

After 23 years in power, and with Turkey¡¯s economy collapsing, Erdogan knows that no election ¡ª even a rigged one ¡ª is safe. This left him with two options: Cancel the vote or remove any credible opponent. But timing mattered. Before making his move, he had to make sure that the geopolitical chessboard was arranged in his favor.