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Yi Fuxian
China¡¯s one-child policy helped create weak domestic consumption, overwork, youth unemployment and demographic decline, fueling the rise of ¡°lying flat¡± culture ¡ª a threat to the country¡¯s long-term economic sustainability.
COMMENTARY / World
Jun 1, 2026
Why have China¡¯s young people become so fed up?
Decades of misguided economic policymaking have left China in a demographic hole that it seems incapable of climbing out of.
China efforts to encourage women to have more babies will have short-lived effects, while coercive measures ¡ª such as bans on contraception and abortion ¡ª would trigger a public backlash.
COMMENTARY / World
Feb 16, 2026
China¡¯s population rebound faces structural limits
China is widely expected to adopt a range of pronatalist policies in a bid to raise birth rates.
China¡¯s marriage market is being hollowed out by a shrinking pool of women of childbearing age and a severe gender imbalance, while those women who do marry are doing so later and having fewer children.
COMMENTARY / World
Jan 28, 2026
Can China reverse its demographic decline?
China¡¯s births have fallen to historic lows and deep structural forces make any lasting fertility rebound unlikely.
China¡¯s demographic spiral is now resembling that of ancient Rome, where changing social norms and drastic population-control measures led to falling birth rates and irreversible decline.
COMMENTARY / World
Aug 9, 2025
What ancient Rome can teach China about demographic collapse
China¡¯s situation, however, is particularly perilous. Unless it is reversed, a demographic decline of this magnitude could recall the collapse of the Roman Empire.
Residential buildings under construction in Shanghai in July 2022. The Chinese government risks long-term decline by repeating Japan¡¯s policy mistakes in handling its real estate and demographic crises.
COMMENTARY / World
Jul 6, 2025
China¡¯s housing crisis is worse than it seems
Chinese policymakers ¡ª who are facing an even more severe housing and demographic crisis than Japan ¡ªare at risk of making the same mistakes.
Declining birth rates in China are driven by a myriad of causes, such as a shrinking childbearing-age population, lifestyle changes, the one-child policy¡¯s lasting effects, an oversupply of men and high youth unemployment.
COMMENTARY / World
Mar 30, 2025
Why China¡¯s marriage crisis matters
According to China¡¯s 2020 census, 61% of babies are born to women aged 20 to 30. But the number of women in this cohort dropped from 111 million in 2012 to 73 million in 2024.
Beyond losing the American market, China is losing some of its own manufacturing companies, which are shifting parts of their production to countries such as Vietnam and Mexico to avoid U.S. tariffs.
COMMENTARY / World
Sep 4, 2024
The rise and coming fall of Chinese manufacturing
Despite China¡¯s significant investments in technology, the decline of its manufacturing sector seems inevitable.
In 2023, 15.4% of China's population was over 65, a demographic milestone that typically slows economic growth.
COMMENTARY / World
Jun 12, 2024
Is China too old to get rich?
By 2023, 15.4% of China¡¯s population was over 65, a demographic milestone that typically slows economic growth.
Moody¡¯s predicts China's potential economic growth will decline to 3.5% by 2030, with weaker demographics and a graying population being a major driver of the slowdown.
COMMENTARY / World
Feb 21, 2024
China¡¯s economic engine is running out of fuel
Moody¡¯s now predicts that China¡¯s annual economic growth will fall to 4% in 2024 and 2025, before slowing further, to 3.8%, on average, for the rest of the decade.
Japan Times
COMMENTARY / World
Jun 4, 2023
China and India have fewer people than the U.N. thinks
The U.N.¡¯s premature declaration that India has surpassed China as the world¡¯s most populous country highlights the diminishing reliability of its population statistics.
Japan Times
COMMENTARY / World
May 22, 2023
An economic Hail Mary for China¡¯s new premier, Li
Just as a baker cannot make bread without enough flour, China¡¯s new premier, Li Qiang, cannot deliver growth without enough labor.
Japan Times
COMMENTARY / World
Mar 10, 2023
The Chinese century is already over
China¡¯s gap between its declining demographic and economic strength and expanding strategic ambitions now constitutes a major geopolitical risk.?
Japan Times
COMMENTARY / World
Mar 5, 2023
China¡¯s big dilemma: What to do about an aging nation
Chinese policymakers must somehow implement policies to reduce the cost of raising children without crashing the economy.
Japan Times
COMMENTARY / World
Dec 14, 2022
China¡¯s activist shortage
Because of China¡¯s one-child policy and age demographics, even as protests roiled cities across the nation, no one should expect a sustained push for democratization.
Japan Times
COMMENTARY / World
Jul 18, 2022
Why is the Uyghur population shrinking?
Are Xinjiang¡¯s declining birthrates the result of forced abortions by the Chinese government? Or is the reason more complicated?
Japan Times
COMMENTARY / World
Apr 20, 2022
China¡¯s abortion problem can¡¯t be regulated away
China¡¯s demographic crisis is much worse than official figures suggest. That is why the authorities have rushed out a series of recent measures, including restrictions on abortion.
Japan Times
COMMENTARY / World
Aug 6, 2021
China¡¯s demographic manipulation
Officially, China¡¯s demographic situation was nothing to be alarmed about. But less than a month after the census was released, Beijing suspiciously loosened the family-planning rules.

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