Three strikes and you¡¯re out.

The rules for baseball can also apply to politics. Britain¡¯s Tory government avoided losing an unprecedented three by-elections on a single day on Thursday by a whisker, all in Conservative-held seats. For a government that must call a general election within 18 months, a wipeout would have spelled doom.

After a recount, the Conservatives held on in Boris Jonson¡¯s vacated London seat in Uxbridge and South Ruislip. An unpopular green tax on cars known as the Ultra-Low Emission Zone, extended without consultation to outer London by Labour Mayor Sadiq Khan, is widely blamed for depriving opposition leader Keir Starmer of a second thumping victory.

The Tories had little else to cheer, although they can console themselves with the thought that the voters invariably take revenge on parties whose members of Parliament jump ship. And all three Conservative incumbents had left under a cloud.

The ruling party suffered two massive defeats elsewhere. In the North Yorkshire constituency of Selby and Ainsty, Labour enjoyed a 23.7 percentage-point swing ¡ª almost double the 12% it needs nationwide to win a majority at the next election. If that result ¡ª the second-biggest swing ever to Labour from the Tories ¡ª was repeated in a general election, the Tories would be reduced to a rump of 30 MPs and Prime Minister Rishi Sunak would lose his seat.

Worse, the Tories face an electoral threat from tactical voting. Labour voters in the West Country constituency of Somerton and Frome abandoned their party to back the centrist Liberal Democrat candidate. In the North, Lib-Dem supporters appear to have reciprocated by voting Labour.

These results pose hard questions. The first and most pressing is whether Sunak is a real politician. Does he have the guile and inspiration to turn his government¡¯s fortunes around or is he just a hard-working technocrat condemned to an honorable defeat when the electorate gets its say on who should run the country?

The Uxbridge result, for instance, should have Labour running scared in its London fiefdom. Yet ever since Boris Johnson departed the mayor¡¯s office for Westminster glory, the Conservatives have written off the capital. An eminently beatable Labour mayor, responsible for an unpopular tax, is running for an unprecedented third term next May, but already the Tories show signs of bungling the contest. The party organisation made sure that some of its best candidates never made the final cut.

The prime minister has also lost his sheen since he entered No 10 nine months ago. Sunak¡¯s net favorability rating has fallen to its lowest level to date: minus 40, down from minus 34 in late June. Almost two-thirds of Britons (65%) have an unfavorable...