2020 is poised to be a great year for Japan. My main scenario is straightforward: exports get lifted by the re-acceleration of Chinese demand and domestic demand strengthens due to strong business investment, fiscal support and a steadfast rise in the purchasing power of Japanese employees.
However, there will be surprises ¡ª scenarios not captured by the quantitative models of the experts or the current consensus ¡°wisdom¡± of the crowds.
Here are the outlier scenarios that keep me awake at night. Improbable as they may seem, any movement toward their far-out direction will force a true about-face in the current consensus. That¡¯s why surprises are so powerful.
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