WASHINGTON šC The Trump administration¡¯s public portrayal of a shattered Iranian military is sharply at odds with what U.S. intelligence agencies are telling policymakers behind closed doors, according to classified assessments from early this month that show Iran has regained access to most of its missile sites, launchers and underground facilities.
Most alarming to some senior officials is evidence that Iran has restored operational access to 30 of the 33 missile sites it maintains along the Strait of Hormuz, which could threaten U.S. warships and oil tankers transiting the narrow waterway.
People with knowledge of the assessments said they show ¡ª to varying degrees, depending on the level of damage incurred at the different sites ¡ª that the Iranians can use mobile launchers that are inside the sites to move missiles to other locations. In some cases they can launch missiles directly from launchpads that are part of the facilities. Only three of the missile sites along the strait remain totally inaccessible, according to the assessments.
Iran still fields about 70% of its mobile launchers across the country and has retained roughly 70% of its prewar missile stockpile, according to the assessments. That stockpile encompasses both ballistic missiles, which can target other nations in the region, and a smaller supply of cruise missiles, which can be used against shorter-range targets on land or at sea.
Military intelligence agencies have also reported, based on information from multiple collection streams including satellite imagery and other surveillance technologies, that Iran has regained access to roughly 90% of its underground missile storage and launch facilities nationwide, which are now assessed to be ¡°partially or fully operational,¡± the people with knowledge of the assessments said.
The findings undercut months of public assurances from President Donald Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who have told Americans that the Iranian military was ¡°decimated¡± and ¡°no longer¡± a threat.
On March 9, 10 days into the war, Trump told CBS News that Iran¡¯s ¡°missiles are down to a scatter¡± and that the country had ¡°nothing left in a military sense.¡± Hegseth declared at a Pentagon news conference on April 8 that Operation Epic Fury ¡ª the joint U.S.-Israel campaign launched on Feb. 28 - had ¡°decimated Iran¡¯s military and rendered it combat-ineffective for years to come.¡±
The intelligence describing Iran¡¯s remaining military capacity is dated less than a month after that news conference.
Asked about the intelligence assessments, a White House spokesperson, Olivia Wales, repeated Trump¡¯s previous assertions that Iran¡¯s military had been ¡°crushed.¡± She said that Iran¡¯s government knows that its ¡°current reality is not sustainable¡± and that anyone who ¡°thinks Iran has reconstituted its military is either delusional or a mouthpiece¡± for Iran¡¯s Revolutionary Guard.
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