Birmingham resident Johur Uddin has always voted Labour. But with the U.K. opposition party on the cusp of a potentially record election victory next week, the 56-year-old consultant says he¡¯ll break with the habit of a lifetime on July 4 and mark his ballot paper with an X next to an independent candidate.

A perception that Labour has drifted from its roots, coupled with party leader Keir Starmer¡¯s support for Israel in its war with Hamas in Gaza, have driven Uddin away. The sentiment was shared by four of the five men with him at the Legacy West Midlands charity¡¯s office in the Birmingham Ladywood constituency, who are eyeing independent candidates ¡ª with one also weighing the Green Party.

¡°The values of Labour have completely changed,¡± said Uddin. ¡°Before it was more for the working people and there was a lot of social justice¡± ¡ª a focus that¡¯s been lost, he said.

The Birmingham men provide a flavor of how some traditionally Labour-backing groups ¡ª a mix of Muslims, environmentalists and the left wing ¡ª are searching for a new voice after the party tacked to the political center in its bid for power. In constituencies with a Muslim population of 20% or more, Labour support is eight points lower than in 2019, while the Green vote climbed eight points, an analysis of YouGov polling data shows. Other reporting also anecdotally suggests a move toward independent candidates by Muslim voters in some seats.

There¡¯s little prospect the trend will cost Labour the election ¡ª the opposition leads Prime Minister Rishi Sunak¡¯s governing Conservatives by more than 20 points in national polling and is projected to secure a record majority. But some of the party¡¯s leading lights, including prospective justice secretary Shabana Mahmood and would-be culture secretary Thangam Debbonaire, could lose their seats, forcing Starmer into a reshuffle of his top team just as he gets his feet under the desk at 10 Downing Street.

Moreover, several Labour MPs, speaking on condition of anonymity, said they worry the change in Labour¡¯s focus could store up problems for the future. Over a couple of election cycles, they said their safe urban seats could shift toward the Greens or independents without careful messaging in the constituency. The current strategy of appealing to voters switching from the Tories and those who backed Brexit isn¡¯t geared toward urban, liberal electorates.

¡°The question is: Is this going to be the sort of thing which hurts them for one election?¡± said Oxford University researcher Andrew Barclay. ¡°Or is it actually a permanent chipping away at the emotional link between Muslim voters and the Labour party?¡±

The rumblings of discontent on Starmer¡¯s left underscore the...