Tunisian President Kais Saied is set to secure more power under a new constitution that was expected to pass in a referendum Monday, in what critics fear is a march to one-man rule over a country that rose up against dictatorship in 2010.

Saied¡¯s opponents fear the changes will deal a major blow to democracy in Tunisia, widely seen as the only success story of the Arab Spring uprisings against autocratic rule that elsewhere ended in renewed repression and civil wars.

Here¡¯s a recap of how the Arab Spring panned out for the countries affected:

Tunisia

Fruit-seller Mohammed Bouazizi set himself on fire on Dec. 17, 2010, after a local official confiscated his cart. Protests spread from his town, Sidi Bouzid, across the country, turning deadly.

President Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali fled on Jan. 14, 2011, inspiring revolts elsewhere. Tunisia held a first democratic election that October, won by the moderate Islamist Ennahda which had been banned under Ben Ali. A new constitution establishing a parliamentary system was agreed in 2014, and Tunisians choose their lawmakers and president in free and fair elections, most recently in 2019. However, economic troubles caused hardship and disillusionment. Illegal emigration to Europe increased. The economy, heavily dependent on tourism, was hit particularly hard by COVID-19.

In July 2021, President Kais Saied froze parliament and sacked the government ¡ª moves his opponents called a coup but which were welcomed by those Tunisians who were fed up with political bickering and paralysis.

Men walk past a statue depicting Tunisian vegetable seller Mohamed Bouazizi's cart, who set himself on fire in December 2010 in an act of protest that triggered the Arab Spring revolution in Sidi Bouzid on Aug. 14, 2012.  | REUTERS
Men walk past a statue depicting Tunisian vegetable seller Mohamed Bouazizi¡¯s cart, who set himself on fire in December 2010 in an act of protest that triggered the Arab Spring revolution in Sidi Bouzid on Aug. 14, 2012. | REUTERS

A year later, Saied called a referendum on a new constitution that strengthened the presidency, capping what his opponents called a march to one-man rule. Saied has said freedoms will be protected.

Egypt

President Hosni Mubarak had been in power since 1981, but massive anti-government protests began on Jan. 25, 2011, as activists called a ¡°day of rage,¡± inspired by Tunisia. As hundreds of thousands of protesters massed after Friday prayers three days later, Mubarak deployed the military. Protests gathered momentum, police were pulled from the streets and the army stood back until Mubarak stepped down ¡ª to be tried in August on charges of abusing power and killing demonstrators.

The once-banned Muslim Brotherhood won the 2012 election but a year later the military, encouraged by anti-Brotherhood protests, toppled the new president, Mohammed Morsi, who was put in prison and died in 2019. Army chief Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi replaced him as president. Rights groups documented abuses in a crackdown on dissent and...