While science provides a framework for understanding the world, deciding how to shape policy based on that guidance is a matter of interpretation.

As climate negotiations grind on at the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Dubai, a controversial statement from COP28 President Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber is a reminder of the limitations of science, echoing a lesson we learned during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Recently, the Guardian surfaced comments Al Jaber made at an online event in November. ¡°There is no science out there, or no scenario out there, that says that the phase-out of fossil fuel is what¡¯s going to achieve 1.5 degrees Celsius,¡± he said. ¡°Show me the roadmap for a phase-out of fossil fuel that will allow for sustainable socioeconomic development, unless you want to take the world back into caves.¡±

The ensuing media storm clearly hit a personal note, prompting Al Jaber to defend his comments during the conference. ¡°Science has been central to my own career progress,¡± he said at a press conference. ¡°I respect the science in everything I do.¡± He also insisted that he¡¯s repeated ¡°over and over that the phase down and phase out of fossil fuels is inevitable.¡±

I was one of many commentators critical of this COP being led by someone who¡¯s an oil company CEO. But I have more of a problem with the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company¡¯s plan to pump 5 million barrels of crude per day by 2027, up from 3 million barrels today, than Al Jaber¡¯s comments ¡ª which are, after all, technically true. Jim Skea, head of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, clarified that in scenarios compatible with limiting warming to 1.5 C above pre-industrial temperatures, fossil fuel use is greatly reduced ¡ª though not eliminated ¡ª while unabated coal use is completely phased out by 2050.

The contrasting reactions from two well-respected climate scientists to Al Jaber¡¯s comments highlight how much room for interpretation there is.

¡°It¡¯s depressing to see the climate establishment reacting so furiously to a perfectly accurate statement by the COP28 president,¡± said Myles Allen, professor of geosystem sciences at the University of Oxford. ¡°To limit warming even close to 1.5 C, we must both scale down the use of fossil fuels and scale up safe and permanent carbon dioxide disposal. It¡¯s simply not true that to stop global warming we have to stop using fossil fuels. What we have to do is stop dumping the carbon dioxide they generate into the atmosphere.¡±

Meanwhile, Joeri Rogelj, professor of climate science and policy at Imperial College London, said: ¡°The COP president believes there is no science showing that fossil fuels must be phased-out to meet 1.5 C....