Brent oil erased all of its wartime gains after flows through the Strait of Hormuz ramped up following progress on a U.S.-Iran peace deal.
The global benchmark pushed lower for a fourth session, dropping below $72.48 a barrel ¡ª its pre-war closing price ¡ª before fluctuating around that level. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was near $69. Key parts of the market are suddenly awash with supply, with buyers inundated by offers from the Middle East as well as Africa, a dramatic reversal that¡¯s led to widespread price weakness.
The U.S. and Iran have both signaled progress after initial discussions to end the war, though their claims have at times diverged, and further talks on topics including nuclear policy and a ceasefire in Lebanon likely face hurdles. Still, early optimism about a lasting agreement has led to more tankers openly crossing Hormuz with their satellite signals switched on.
¡°It¡¯s quite amazing the price and narrative turnaround from even where the market was less than two weeks ago,¡± said Carolyn Kissane, associate dean of New York University¡¯s Center for Global Affairs. ¡°The idea that we are pivoting to seeing more supply with lower demand has really driven the downward price shift.¡±
The rising availability of oil has pushed down the price of physical barrels from Angola to the United Arab Emirates. Brent¡¯s prompt spread ¡ª a closely watched metric by the market ¡ª flipped into a bearish contango structure on Wednesday for the first time since the war started.
On a closing basis, WTI is also near from its pre-war price of $67.02 a barrel after rallying to a conflict peak of just above $119 in March. Other prices have come off, including Dated Brent, the most important physical oil benchmark, which topped $140 to reach a record.
A temporary waiver from the U.S. to allow for the purchases of Iranian oil that¡¯s already been loaded is set to add even more supply. Still, financing and insurance-related hurdles remain, which are likely to limit sales.
Another issue that¡¯s likely to raise concerns is the prospect of Iran seeking to levy a fee for traveling through Hormuz. Trump told reporters on Wednesday that tolls would be a red line issue for U.S. negotiations with Tehran, saying he would reject a final agreement if they were included.
Much of the success in solving the oil supply problem after the war erupted has come at the expense of inventories that will need to be refilled, including in the U.S. Stockpiles at Cushing, Oklahoma, which fell to around 19 million barrels last week, which is below a level that¡¯s considered the operational requirement.
With your current subscription plan you can comment on stories. However, before writing your first comment, please create a display name in the Profile section of your subscriber account page.