Former U.S. President Donald Trump wants to be a weak-dollar president, but he¡¯s running on a strong-dollar platform.
That¡¯s the prevailing view of Wall Street economists who¡¯ve run the numbers on Trump¡¯s second-term plans.
Tariffs on U.S. trade partners, and tax cuts that could push inflation and interest rates higher, add up to a mix that would encourage the greenback to rise, they reckon, all else being equal.
Which of course it may not be, if Trump ¡ª who upended plenty of expert predictions last time he arrived in the White House ¡ª has any say in the matter.
The GOP candidate has completely overhauled the party in his populist image and named a fellow strong-dollar skeptic in Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance as his running mate.
If he defeats his Democratic opponent, likely to be U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris, in November, then Trump looks set to start a second term right where the last one left off ¡ª railing against an overvalued currency, which he blames for blowing out America¡¯s trade deficit and hollowing out its industry.
But as Trump discovered after his 2016 victory, presidents don¡¯t have any straightforward levers they can pull to depreciate the dollar.
And the ones that have been mooted this time around ¡ª leaning harder on the Federal Reserve to keep borrowing costs low, or strong-arming other governments to lift their own exchange rates ¡ª would likely alarm investors.
That¡¯s a major drawback for a leader who¡¯s always cared about how markets judge his policies.
¡°The main institution that is standing between Trump and the devaluation is the S&P,¡± said Freya Beamish, chief economist at TS Lombard, referring to the benchmark U.S. equity index.
Any kind of aggressive step to devalue the dollar ¡°would send shock-waves through the global financial system.¡±
In his first term, Trump often berated other countries for keeping their exchange rates too weak against the dollar, and he repeatedly lobbied the Fed to ease monetary policy.
Now back on the campaign trail, he used a Bloomberg Businessweek interview to make it clear that the subject remains at the top of his mind.
Asked what kind of economy Americans need, Trump promptly raised the ¡°big currency problem.¡±
He said he keeps hearing from manufacturers that ¡°nobody wants to buy our product because it¡¯s too expensive¡± ¡ª while other countries try to keep their currencies ¡°weak all the time¡± because it gives them an edge in exports.
Trump expressed particular irritation with the cheapness of Japan¡¯s yen and China¡¯s yuan.
The day before the interview was published, Trump had named Vance as his No. 2.
Last year, Vance challenged Fed Chair Jerome Powell to explain how ordinary Americans...
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