Japan¡¯s record share market rally earlier this year is looking like a distant memory as foreign investors sell off stocks in a sluggish economy.
Citigroup and Abrdn are among banks that have turned more pessimistic toward the nation¡¯s equities as the outlook for corporate governance reform and the Bank of Japan (BOJ)¡¯s monetary policy remains uncertain. A fund manager survey by Bank of America showed about a third of respondents believe the market has peaked.
Foreign investors, who helped push up Japanese shares to a record high just a few months ago and beat overseas peers, became net sellers for a fourth straight week through June 14. That was the longest streak since September, according to Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) data.
Japan¡¯s blue-chip 225-issue Nikkei stock average index has stalled since reaching an all-time high on March 22. It has dropped 5.6% since then, compared with a 1% gain during the period for the MSCI AC Asia Pacific Index, and a 4.4% advance in the U.S.¡¯s surging S&P 500 Index.
¡°The early optimism for Japanese stocks this year is clearly hitting a speed bump,¡± said Hebe Chen, an analyst at IG Markets. ¡°Investors face the soul-searching question of whether the drivers for Japanese stocks are sustainable.¡±
Factors that supported Japanese shares earlier are starting to drag on the market. Foreign investors that flooded in, attracted by Japan¡¯s unprecedented push to improve shareholder value, are now selling, unloading a net ?250 billion ($1.6 billion) worth of Japanese stocks in the week ended June 14, according to TSE data.
Japanese equities are facing ¡°a material risk of correction,¡± and it¡¯s likely to take a while before positive factors emerge, according to Citigroup analysts including Ryota Sakagami.
Investors are becoming wary about the yen¡¯s relentless slide. In the past they welcomed the weak currency as a boon for exporters, but the degree of the yen¡¯s recent drop has put the focus on how it may harm Japan¡¯s economy, including by boosting inflationary pressure.
The yen depreciated on Friday to approach ?160 per dollar, a level it hasn¡¯t touched since April, prompting Japanese currency officials to warn against excessive foreign exchange moves.
¡°We would like to see some floor in terms of the weakening trend¡± of the yen, and that may benefit the domestic economy, JPMorgan Asset Management¡¯s Aisa Ogoshi said.
Despite the recent sluggishness of shares though, several strategists including those at BlackRock and Morgan Stanley remain positive on Japan¡¯s long-term outlook, citing structural changes including corporate reforms, domestic investments and wage growth.
Investors will be closely watching whether the BOJ pushes ahead with its second interest-rate hike in July after lifting rates for the first time since 2007 in...
With your current subscription plan you can comment on stories. However, before writing your first comment, please create a display name in the Profile section of your subscriber account page.